I am concerned…..

I just started typing this and felt I needed to get my thoughts and feelings out right now. Agree, disagree, read it, don’t read it – I don’t care either way. This was more an exercise for me to process things right now.

It’s a rough time for the cinema industry – an industry I’ve been proud to be a part of for the past 2 decades.  It’s an industry that has weathered every financial crash, every period of recession.  After all, the masses need entertainment, and cinema (despite your personal opinion) is still one of the cheapest evenings out.

Side note: It does always amuse me that some people turn their nose up at paying around £10 per ticket to see a film, but will spend more than that to watch a 90 minute football game, or go to the theatre, or pay over £35 to queue for ages at a theme park for the chance of a few minutes thrill on a rollercoaster.

But now, for the first time in my 2 decade career, I am worried.  Worried for the industry as a whole, worried for indie cinemas, and worried, of course, for my own job.  All because of distributors.

Okay, let’s take it back a little – the distributors have been concerned by the pandemic going on.  I get that, and I get that Covid is the fundamental issue that started all this.  However, now it is more a hesitance to switch to a new release model that is the issue.  You see, distributors are still very much focussed on the US market, and don’t seem to care too much about the rest of the world.

Around the world cinemas were pretty much cornered into opening in time for Tenet – failure to do so would put the cinema itself at risk.  Being the only venue not open for “the biggest film of the summer” would be a ringing of the bell to signal the end.  So, open they did – foregoing any government grants and support, and taking that risk.  Not much of a risk as the line-up was fine from that point on.

Tenet opened internationally, not to sell out figures, but strong enough to justify things, and to keep cinemas alive whilst giving some decent financials back to distributors.  But there was a problem….the US!  It wasn’t ready!  So, Disney pulled their big family film from release (Mulan) to switch to an experimental Premium model on Disney+ to try to claw back what they could.  Was this the right move?  Well, it looks like it didn’t pan out as well as the company hoped – people were generally put off by the idea of paying a premium price to rent something that will be free on the service in a couple of months.  Would a split release – doing VOD and Cinema together – have paid off?  Well, we may never know, but when you consider that Trolls 2, which was the first release to go to VOD, still turned some money at the box office in the past 2 months in the UK, it suggests some people just want to have that theatre experience.  Disney not only dropped the ball there, but they also alienated all goodwill with theatres.

But, that’s okay, we still had October to look ahead to.  Candyman, Death On The Nile, Wonder Woman, Black Widow – a strong month which would surely bring people into the cinema.

One by one those films dropped off the schedule.  October was dry.

So, cinemas were forced to now plough on, desperately grabbing at anything – old releases or new smaller films – to at least try to incentivise people to come back to them.  But audiences are a fickle bunch – they will ask for more varied content, but then when it arrives and doesn’t star The Rock or Vin Diesel, they turn their noses up.  They ask for classics….but not those classics, just the ones from their own DVD library thank you very much.

But, soldier on cinemas did.  We can risk some weeks of losses if Bond stays the course.  All signs were good – Bond would still release mid November.  Why worry?  After all, the Bond films have always performed better internationally in China and Europe anyway, so surely they can ignore the fact that the US is still struggling?

Then Bond moved to next year, and now cinemas over the UK have two months of sparse product ahead of them, and I fear many will not weather this storm.

For the first time in 20 years I worry for my industry and my own job.  I look around at my colleagues and I worry for them.  The distributors have turned their backs on us, and left us to sink.  Warners in particular were the ones who pushed us to open, only to then take away any future support.  Like a forceful parent insisting we just leap into the water and try to swim, only to turn away as we cry for help, floundering to stay afloat.

They are worried – worried that opening now won’t generate the revenue they want.  But, in the process of delaying they are risking there not being any theatres left internationally once they decide they are ready.  Those US figures?  Yeah, they won’t be enough to sustain an industry.

They are still thinking globally too much and need to start considering split releases more – allow films to play internationally without a US release.  It has worked in the past (hello Paddington), why not use it now and throw a lifeline to cinemas.  Because despite there being a wealth of critically acclaimed films actually being released, they don’t have explosions and car chases, so the general audience isn’t coming to them.  Audiences don’t really want original films, despite what they try to tell you.  They want your big blockbusters.

Side Note: If audiences who are comfortable would at least take that chance on something different, the situation would be much improved.  There are new films, many of which are the kind of films that you will see next year and wonder why you missed it at the box office.  Big names are in some of them, such as Aaron Sorkin’s Trial of the Chicago 7 with Eddie Redmayne, Sacha Baron Cohen, Mark Rylance and more.  But many feature names you won’t have heard of, but will be glad you found out about.   Give them a try.

It is particularly disappointing that films such as Candyman and Death on the Nile – not exactly high budget films – have moved!  Candyman would have more than profited over Halloween, and Death on the Nile would likely have followed the pattern that Murder on the Orient Express showed, where it played strongest internationally, more than making the money back without the US.  These alone would have been enough of a lifeline to cinemas to keep them afloat.

Bond, the most British of blockbuster franchises, may have actually broken the British market by this move.  As we look ahead to the packed slate at December, it is impossible to feel any hope now, as all we expect is further announcements of delays, and then see the rest of the year empty…much like the cinemas will be as they are forced to close one by one.